Public Analysis Archive
Market Analysis Archive
In-depth, freely readable analysis of verified world events and the cascading market consequences that follow them. Each briefing traces the chain from a first-order shock through second- and third-order economic ripples, with the forecast direction, probability, and — where the horizon has elapsed — the actual outcome. Published on a 72-hour delay; subscribers receive the same intelligence in real time.
113 briefings published
GeopoliticalHigh USA
US-China Presidential Summit Announced
President Trump is set to host China's Xi Jinping at the White House this week for a summit focused on tariffs, Taiwan, the Iran conflict, and AI safety.
Oct 1, 2026Neutral 60%
MacroeconomicHigh United States
Fed Chair Warsh Holds News Conference Following FOMC Rate Decision
Following an FOMC rate decision, Fed Chair Warsh held a press conference, signaling a hawkish stance that prompted traders to increase positions in dollar call options.
Oct 1, 2026Bullish 70%
Currency & FXHigh United States
US Payrolls Data Increases September Rate Hike Probability to 60%
Stronger-than-expected payroll data has shifted market expectations, raising the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September to 60%.
Oct 1, 2026Bullish 60%
MacroeconomicHigh Europe
European Stocks Hit Three-Month Lows Amid Surging Bond Yields
European equity markets closed at three-month lows as a sharp rise in global bond yields increased borrowing costs and pressured banking sector valuations.
Oct 1, 2026Bearish 80%
TechnologyHigh United States
OpenAI and Anthropic Appeals Rattle AI Sector
Legal appeals filed by OpenAI and Anthropic have triggered a market-wide sell-off in AI-related technology stocks due to increased regulatory and litigation uncertainty.
Oct 1, 2026Bearish 70%
Supply ChainSevere Strait of Hormuz
Kuwaiti VLCC tanker on fire following attack in Strait of Hormuz
A Kuwaiti Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) has caught fire after being targeted in an attack within the Strait of Hormuz, threatening a critical energy chokepoint.
Oct 1, 2026Bullish 85%
Full archive
- Fixed Income & RatesOct 1, 2026Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack Signals Hawkish Stance
- TechnologyOct 1, 2026Micron Technology Reports Fiscal Q4 Earnings Beat and Strong Guidance
- EnergyOct 1, 2026Oil prices surge 4% following US military deployment to Middle East
- Market InterdependenceOct 1, 2026US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.306%
- CryptocurrencyOct 1, 2026Tether-backed Chilean exchange Orionx shuts down following $7M custody shortfall
- Fixed Income & RatesOct 1, 2026US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 24-Year High
- Fixed Income & RatesOct 1, 2026October Fed Rate Hike Odds Plunge
- Market InterdependenceOct 1, 2026US bond market reverses course following Treasury sell-off
- Fixed Income & RatesOct 1, 202630-Year Treasury Yield Reaches 24-Year Peak
- Fixed Income & RatesOct 1, 2026Emerging Market Investors Shun Riskiest Bonds as US Yields Soar
- CryptocurrencyOct 1, 2026Orionx Exchange Shuts Down Following $7 Million Custody Shortfall
- Critical MaterialsOct 1, 2026Radiant World Iron Ore Scandal Escalates to $2 Billion Lawsuit
- TechnologySep 30, 2026Suspected Cyberattack on Oil Tankers Bound for US
- GeopoliticalSep 30, 2026US Depletes Missile Stockpiles in Stalled Iran Conflict
- Supply ChainSep 30, 2026Russian air strikes target Ukrainian food distribution hubs
- Supply ChainSep 30, 2026Russian Air Strikes Damage Ukrainian Food and Pharmaceutical Supply Chains
- Fixed Income & RatesSep 30, 2026Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack signals need for rate hikes
- MacroeconomicSep 30, 2026Bank of Japan Signals Faster Interest Rate Hikes
- Weather & ClimateSep 30, 2026Severe Flooding in Northern India
- EnergySep 30, 2026Crude oil prices rise as Trump confirms maintenance of Iran sanctions
- Supply ChainSep 30, 2026German Port Workers Vote on Indefinite Strike Action
- Trade & TariffsSep 30, 2026China Imposes 55% Surtax on Brazilian Beef Imports
- Supply ChainSep 30, 2026Deadly Blast Hits Major Indian Refinery
- Supply ChainSep 29, 2026Houthi territorial gains at Bab el-Mandeb escalate shipping risk
- Trade & TariffsSep 29, 2026Canada Announces Retaliatory Tariffs Against U.S.
- Trade & TariffsSep 29, 2026Canada to announce retaliatory tariffs against the US
- Currency & FXSep 29, 2026RBA Expected to Hike Rates to 4.60% Amid Economic Headwinds
- TechnologySep 29, 2026Major Cyberattack Confirmed at 1,500 Locations
- Market InterdependenceSep 29, 2026Diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz intensify
- GeopoliticalSep 28, 2026US Depletion of Long-Range Precision Missiles in Iran Conflict
- GeopoliticalSep 28, 2026US Depletes Long-Range Precision Missiles in Iran Conflict
- GeopoliticalSep 28, 2026US Depletion of Long-Range Missiles in Iran Conflict
- GeopoliticalSep 28, 2026US Depletes Missile Stockpiles in Iran Conflict Stalemate
- Trade & TariffsSep 28, 2026U.S. and China Agree to Tariff Reductions on $60 Billion in Trade
- Market InterdependenceSep 28, 2026Brent Crude Oil Surpasses $107 Per Barrel Following Trump Rejection of Iranian Proposal
- MacroeconomicSep 28, 2026Bank of Japan Unscheduled Bond Purchase Operation
- TechnologySep 28, 2026Microsoft Azure and Related Services Experiencing Outage
- Market InterdependenceSep 28, 2026Treasury Yields Surge Amid Renewed US-Iran Tensions
- MacroeconomicSep 28, 2026President Trump Rejects Iranian Truce Proposal
- Fixed Income & RatesSep 28, 2026US Bond Selloff Deepens on Geopolitical Energy Shock
- Currency & FXSep 28, 2026Bangladesh Bank Cuts Repo Rate to 9.5%
- TechnologySep 28, 2026Rising US Treasury yields trigger rotation out of technology stocks
- Currency & FXSep 28, 2026Oil Price Spike Following Rejection of Iran Peace Proposal
- Currency & FXSep 28, 2026Japan's top FX diplomat issues clear warning on Yen
- TechnologySep 28, 2026Global Risk-Off Sentiment Driven by Geopolitical Escalations
- Trade & TariffsSep 27, 2026Escalating US-Canada Trade War Impacts Protein Supply Chain
- Weather & ClimateSep 27, 2026Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake Strikes Near Kupang, Indonesia
- Weather & ClimateSep 26, 2026Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake Strikes Kamchatka, Russia
- Weather & ClimateSep 26, 2026M7.8 Earthquake Strikes Kamchatka Region, Russia
- Currency & FXSep 26, 2026US Payrolls Hit 5-Month High Ahead of CPI Data
- GeopoliticalSep 26, 2026US-Iran Conflict Escalation and Missile Depletion
- GeopoliticalSep 26, 2026Iran Vows Strikes on Middle East Energy Infrastructure
- MacroeconomicSep 26, 2026Escalation in US-Iran conflict at Strait of Hormuz
- Fixed Income & RatesSep 26, 2026Cleveland Fed President Hammack Signals Hawkish Stance
- Fixed Income & RatesSep 26, 2026Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack signals hawkish stance on interest rates
- Market InterdependenceSep 26, 2026Trump Trade Threat Raises Pressure on Fed
- Supply ChainSep 26, 2026Escalation of Attacks on Commercial Shipping in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
- Currency & FXSep 26, 2026Bank of Japan signals catch-up with Federal Reserve policy
- TechnologySep 26, 2026Apple hit with $5.7 billion fine
- Supply ChainSep 26, 2026EUNAVFOR Issues High-Alert Advisory for Bab el-Mandeb Transit
- MacroeconomicSep 26, 2026JPMorgan CEO identifies sovereign debt as primary global risk
- GeopoliticalSep 26, 2026US Depletion of Precision Missiles in Iran Conflict
- CryptocurrencySep 26, 2026GRIN Token Experiences Sharp 18% Price Correction
- CorporateSep 25, 2026Lula Bans Online Gambling in Brazil
- Supply ChainSep 25, 2026Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic
- GeopoliticalSep 25, 2026Interceptor Launch Reported in Lebanon
- GeopoliticalSep 25, 2026Ukrainian Drones Strike Russian Energy Hubs
- CorporateSep 25, 2026Akamai Technologies announces $11.6B cloud deal with Anthropic
- CommoditySep 25, 2026U.S.-Iran Negotiations on Strait of Hormuz
- Regulatory & PolicySep 25, 2026US Pressures Mexico to Restrict Chinese AI Hardware Exports
- Supply ChainSep 25, 2026Houthis Claim Missile and Drone Attacks on Saudi Aramco Facilities in Yambu
- CryptocurrencySep 25, 2026Bitget Exchange Suffers $352 Million Security Breach
- Supply ChainSep 25, 2026Explosions reported at Russian oil refinery and factory in Ulyanovsk and Perm
- Fixed Income & RatesSep 25, 2026Federal Reserve Rate Hike Probability Increases to 70%
- Supply ChainSep 25, 2026Explosions reported at Lukoil Perm Oil Refinery and Iskra plant
- Supply ChainSep 25, 2026Explosions reported at factory and oil refinery in Russia
- Supply ChainSep 25, 2026Escalation of Houthi Attacks on Saudi Oil Infrastructure
- Supply ChainSep 25, 2026Escalation of Houthi military activity near Bab el-Mandeb Strait
- Supply ChainSep 25, 2026Saudi Arabia Red Sea Oil Export Disruptions Intensify
- Market InterdependenceSep 25, 2026Middle East uncertainty drives volatility in oil and Treasury yields
- Supply ChainSep 25, 2026Explosions reported at Russian oil refinery and factory in Ulyanovsk and Perm
- TechnologySep 25, 2026Kiteworks issues emergency shutdown order due to imminent cyberattack threat
- Weather & ClimateSep 25, 2026Major Earthquake Strikes Japan
- Supply ChainSep 25, 2026Explosions and fire reported at Lukoil Perm Oil Refinery
- TechnologySep 25, 2026Kiteworks urges customers to shut down servers due to imminent cyberattack threat
- GeopoliticalSep 24, 2026Oracle declares force majeure amid escalating geopolitical instability
- CorporateSep 24, 2026MongoDB CEO Departure Sparks Leadership Questions
- Supply ChainSep 24, 2026Strait of Hormuz Shipping Traffic Remains Severely Suppressed
- Currency & FXSep 24, 2026Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge Above 68% for October
- TechnologySep 24, 2026Oracle declares force majeure following major system disruption
- GeopoliticalSep 24, 2026Hamas Agrees to Full Disarmament in US-Brokered Gaza Deal
- Currency & FXSep 24, 2026Japanese Finance Minister Signals Readiness for Yen Intervention
- MacroeconomicSep 24, 2026Fed's Barr signals potential for further rate hikes
- EnergySep 24, 2026European gas prices surge above €80/MWh
- Supply ChainSep 24, 2026Houthi forces repel government attempt to secure Aden-Taiz supply line
- CorporateSep 24, 2026Boeing 737 MAX Software Glitch Triggers FAA Review
- Currency & FXSep 24, 2026Market repricing of ECB and Fed rate hike expectations
- Supply ChainSep 24, 2026Massive fire and explosion at Chevron oil refinery near Los Angeles
- TechnologySep 24, 2026F5 Networks patches critical BIG-IP APM zero-day vulnerability
- Supply ChainSep 24, 2026Escalation of Houthi Military Control at Bab el-Mandeb Strait
- MacroeconomicSep 23, 2026US 10-Year Treasury Yield Surpasses 5% Threshold
- GeopoliticalSep 23, 2026Treasury Yields Hit 19-Year High Amid Geopolitical Tensions
- Supply ChainSep 23, 2026G7 Foreign Ministers Issue Formal Demand to Houthis to Cease Red Sea Attacks
- Weather & ClimateSep 23, 2026Major 7.1-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Near Montalbán, Venezuela
- EnergySep 23, 2026Oil Prices Surge Following US Attacks on Iranian Ships
- CommoditySep 23, 2026Russian Oil Export Volumes Decline Amidst Sanctions and Saudi Supply Pressure
- EnergySep 23, 2026Goldman Sachs Warns of $120 Oil Price Risk
Read it 72 hours sooner.
Subscribers get every briefing in real time, plus portfolio-matched alerts, AI trade recommendations, and the actionable instruments held back from public briefings.
