Public Track Record
Forecast Accuracy Leaderboard
Every forecast the Butterfly Effect Engine publishes is logged, scored against the actual outcome, and displayed here — publicly, with no retroactive edits. This is the real, rolling track record.
Last updated Sep 13, 2026, 10:03 AM
Predictions Scored
14
23 total published
Forecast Accuracy
67.9%
9/14 resolved
Signal Accuracy
0%
0/0 recommendations
Avg Brier Score
0.201
Lower is better (0–1)
Cumulative Success Rate
Rolling, all scored forecastsBy Forecast Direction
Bullish37.5%
3/8 correct8 total
Bearish100%
5/5 correct5 total
Neutral100%
1/1 correct1 total
By Time Horizon
| Horizon | Scored | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 days | 9 | 4 | 44.4% |
| 30 days | 5 | 5 | 100% |
Recent Scored Forecasts
Public ledger excerpt| Event | Direction | Prob | Horizon | Brier | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Major Hurricane Category 4 Approaching Gulf Coast Refineries | Bullish | 75% | 5 days | 0.563 | Incorrect |
| Suez Canal Traffic Disrupted by Vessel Grounding | Bullish | 58% | 5 days | 0.336 | Incorrect |
| Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit Record Weekly High | Bullish | 67% | 5 days | 0.449 | Incorrect |
| Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Signals Hawkish Bias | Bearish | 68% | 5 days | 0.104 | Correct |
| China Announces Export Controls on Gallium and Germanium | Bearish | 72% | 30 days | 0.078 | Correct |
| OPEC+ Agrees to Production Increase of 400K Barrels/Day | Bearish | 65% | 5 days | 0.123 | Correct |
| Major Tech Company Announces 10,000 Layoff Restructuring | Neutral | 55% | 30 days | 0.202 | Correct |
| Drought Conditions Worsen Across US Corn Belt | Bullish | 71% | 30 days | 0.084 | Correct |
| Major Lithium Producer Halts Operations at Australian Mine | Bullish | 70% | 30 days | 0.090 | Correct |
| European Central Bank Cuts Deposit Rate by 25bps | Bullish | 60% | 5 days | 0.160 | Partially Correct |
| Fed Pivot Signal August 2024 | Bullish | 62% | 30 days | 0.144 | Correct |
| Silicon Valley Bank Collapse March 2023 | Bearish | 70% | 5 days | 0.090 | Correct |
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